Filled points are supported; hollow points are preliminary. Lines stop at unknown capabilities. Exact values and sources follow below.
Agentic2 families · 1 with independent evidence · Supported2.7
2 core families; 45 direct opponents across 16 labs.
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: 2.3–3.6; 2/13 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: 1.8–71.0; 1/15 unsupported. Smoothing check: 1.1–8.2; 0/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: family and publisher holdouts improved on neutral predictions within evaluated coverage; source sensitivity still requires inspection. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
- GDPval: 43.5 observed win share
NVIDIA, artificialanalysis.ai · Source 1 Source 2 - Browsecomp: 25.0 observed win share
NVIDIA · Source 1
Hard reasoning3 families · 0 with independent evidence · Supported13.3
3 core families; 5 direct opponents across 5 labs.
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: 4.0–25.4; 0/6 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: 3.2–53.8; 1/16 unsupported. Smoothing check: 5.5–25.8; 0/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: family and publisher holdouts improved on neutral predictions within evaluated coverage. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
Coding3 families · 0 with independent evidence · Supported1.7
3 core families; 4 direct opponents across 4 labs.
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: 0.4–16.4; 0/6 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: 1.0–7.3; 1/19 unsupported. Smoothing check: 0.8–5.5; 0/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: family and publisher holdouts improved on neutral predictions within evaluated coverage. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
- LiveCodeBench: 75.0 observed win share
NVIDIA · Source 1 - SWE-bench Multilingual: 0.0 observed win share
NVIDIA · Source 1 - SWE-bench Verified: 0.0 observed win share
NVIDIA · Source 1
Human pref1 families · 1 with independent evidence · PreliminaryUnknown
1 core families; 41 direct opponents across 13 labs. No connected comparison to the complete reference panel
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: No supported estimate; 1/1 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: No supported estimate; 1/1 unsupported. Smoothing check: No supported estimate; 3/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: cross-family and cross-publisher predictions could not be evaluated from the available comparison network. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
- Human preference (Arena): 82.9 observed win share
lmarena.ai · Source 1
Knowledge1 families · 0 with independent evidence · PreliminaryUnknown
1 core families; 4 direct opponents across 4 labs. No connected comparison to the complete reference panel
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: No supported estimate; 4/4 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: No supported estimate; 5/5 unsupported. Smoothing check: No supported estimate; 3/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: almost no publisher-held-out comparisons remained estimable. Cross-source validity is unresolved. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
MultimodalNo comparable evidenceUnknown
0 core families; 0 direct opponents across 0 labs. No admitted core comparisons
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: No supported estimate; 8/8 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: No supported estimate; 8/8 unsupported. Smoothing check: No supported estimate; 3/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: limited publisher-held-out coverage. Cross-source validity is unresolved. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
Long context3 families · 0 with independent evidence · PreliminaryUnknown
3 core families; 4 direct opponents across 4 labs. No connected comparison to the complete reference panel
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: No supported estimate; 5/5 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: No supported estimate; 5/5 unsupported. Smoothing check: No supported estimate; 3/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: family and publisher holdouts underperformed neutral predictions. Treat this as an exploratory estimate. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
- Aa Lcr: 0.0 observed win share
NVIDIA · Source 1 - Longbench: 0.0 observed win share
NVIDIA · Source 1 - Ruler 1M: 100.0 observed win share
NVIDIA · Source 1
Scores estimate outcomes against a shared reference panel; they are not accuracy percentages. Sparse or disconnected evidence cannot qualify an overall profile. Open a capability to inspect its evidence.
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