Filled points are supported; hollow points are preliminary. Lines stop at unknown capabilities. Exact values and sources follow below.
AgenticNo comparable evidenceUnknown
0 core families; 0 direct opponents across 0 labs. No admitted core comparisons
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: No supported estimate; 13/13 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: No supported estimate; 15/15 unsupported. Smoothing check: No supported estimate; 3/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: family and publisher holdouts improved on neutral predictions within evaluated coverage; source sensitivity still requires inspection. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
Hard reasoning1 families · 1 with independent evidence · Preliminary32.7
1 core families; 59 direct opponents across 10 labs. Needs broader benchmark and opponent support
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: No supported estimate; 6/6 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: No supported estimate; 16/16 unsupported. Smoothing check: No supported estimate; 3/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: family and publisher holdouts improved on neutral predictions within evaluated coverage. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
- ARC-AGI: 49.2 observed win share
arcprize.org · Source 1
Coding1 families · 1 with independent evidence · Preliminary43.7
1 core families; 21 direct opponents across 7 labs. Needs broader benchmark and opponent support
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: No supported estimate; 6/6 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: No supported estimate; 19/19 unsupported. Smoothing check: No supported estimate; 3/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: family and publisher holdouts improved on neutral predictions within evaluated coverage. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
- Terminal-Bench: 19.0 observed win share
tbench.ai · Source 1
Human prefNo comparable evidenceUnknown
0 core families; 0 direct opponents across 0 labs. No admitted core comparisons
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: No supported estimate; 1/1 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: No supported estimate; 1/1 unsupported. Smoothing check: No supported estimate; 3/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: cross-family and cross-publisher predictions could not be evaluated from the available comparison network. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
KnowledgeNo comparable evidenceUnknown
0 core families; 0 direct opponents across 0 labs. No admitted core comparisons
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: No supported estimate; 4/4 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: No supported estimate; 5/5 unsupported. Smoothing check: No supported estimate; 3/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: almost no publisher-held-out comparisons remained estimable. Cross-source validity is unresolved. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
MultimodalNo comparable evidenceUnknown
0 core families; 0 direct opponents across 0 labs. No admitted core comparisons
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: No supported estimate; 8/8 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: No supported estimate; 8/8 unsupported. Smoothing check: No supported estimate; 3/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: limited publisher-held-out coverage. Cross-source validity is unresolved. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
Long contextNo comparable evidenceUnknown
0 core families; 0 direct opponents across 0 labs. No admitted core comparisons
Estimated against the same complete panel: gpt-5.6-sol claude-opus-4-8 gemini-3.1-pro . Indirect comparisons assume performance can be summarized by one strength within this capability.
Refit without one family: No supported estimate; 5/5 scenarios unsupported. Without one publisher: No supported estimate; 5/5 unsupported. Smoothing check: No supported estimate; 3/3 unsupported. These are sensitivity checks, not confidence intervals.
Audit: family and publisher holdouts underperformed neutral predictions. Treat this as an exploratory estimate. Validation audit.
Matched family win shares below describe source evidence; they are not averaged to produce the adjusted score.
Scores estimate outcomes against a shared reference panel; they are not accuracy percentages. Sparse or disconnected evidence cannot qualify an overall profile. Open a capability to inspect its evidence.
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